Wet start to holiday travel… a few storms.

The wet weather pattern continues to be a threat to your holiday travel as we head into Christmas week.

In fact, we will see a good dose of rain (2+ inches in some spots) through Wednesday.

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) rainfall forecast through 7am Thursday.
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) rainfall forecast through 7am Thursday.

The forecast models continue to slow the movement of the upper level trough for Tuesday/Wednesday. In previous runs, it showed the base of the trough negatively tilted nearing NE Florida and SE Georgia on Tuesday afternoon/evening.

GFS model for Tuesday afternoon. Shows slower solution for upper level trough.
GFS model (500 mb) for Tuesday afternoon. Shows slower solution for upper level trough.

In fact, now the GFS shows the base of the trough moving “overhead” early Thursday!

GFS model at 500 mb for Thursday morning.
GFS model at 500 mb for Thursday morning.

The surface cold front will still be well west of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday… and now it appears the cold front will wait until mid day on Wednesday to pass by Jacksonville.

GFS 12z Saturday run showing Monday morning's rain.
GFS 12z Saturday run showing Monday morning’s rain.
GFS 12z Saturday run showing Tuesday's afternoon rain/storms.
GFS 12z Saturday run showing Tuesday’s afternoon rain/storms.
GFS 12z Saturday run showing Wednesday morning's pre-frontal ain.
GFS 12z Saturday run showing Wednesday morning’s pre-frontal rain.
GFS 12z Saturday run for Christmas day. Looks nice!
GFS 12z Saturday run for Christmas day. Looks nice!

We will still see some dynamics in the atmosphere that allow for the possibility of a few strong storms Tuesday afternoon/evening… and we may even see some isolated storms on Monday.

GFS 12z Saturday run of the 300mb jet. Showing upper level diffluence and divergence… allowing for air to rise over NE Florida/SE Georgia.
GFS 12z Saturday run of the 300mb jet. Showing upper level diffluence and divergence… allowing for air to rise over NE Florida/SE Georgia.

Bottom line as of now:

  • Scattered light rain begins Saturday evening (mainly SE Georgia).
  • Rain picks up again on Sunday across much of NE Florida and SE Georgia…and continues overnight into Monday.
  • Monday morning commute will likely be wet!
  • A few isolated storms are possible embedded in the rain Monday evening.
  • Tuesday: more rain…. with the possibility of a few strong storms moving from SW to NE pretty quickly.
  • Wednesday: morning rain… decreasing about mid day…then clearing behind the cold front… and windy!
  • Christmas Day: looks great! Lots of sunshine.. a bit cool with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

We will continue to pour over the latest model data and keep you updated from the First Alert Weather Center. Stay tuned to CBS47 and FOX30 Action News for any important weather information.

Follow me on Twitter for weather updates as well. @wxgarrett

See you on TV throughout the weekend and during the week (I’m in for Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh).

Leave a Reply to wxgarrett