Here comes La Nina

NERD TIME: You may have heard us/weather community talk a lot about El Nino over the past 6 months+… well… as is typically the case… that has to end at some point. The image you see is forecast models (in three month intervals) for the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It shows sea surface temperature anomalies (departure from average).
 
The top of the image shows observed conditions (El Nino/warm) for November, December ’15, and January ’16.
 
By the third time interval… (May/June/July)… This particular experimental model has sings of La Nina (Cooler waters respective to average) shown in blue. Notice as you go through summer and into fall/winter… it only gets stronger.
 
This isn’t out of the realm of possibilities and not out of the ordinary after a strong El Nino.
Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast in Global Tropics Domain. Feb. 2016
Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast in Global Tropics Domain. Feb. 2016
 
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN: Well… if this verifies…. one of the effects would mean be less wind shear in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of hurricane season. This could lead (key word “could”) to a more active hurricane season in 2016. ***That doesn’t correlate to whether or not there is a U.S. landfall.***
 
Another affect could be an increase in our fire danger in NE Florida this spring/summer with the potential for below average precipitation.
If should be noted that some other climate forecast models have the La Nina forming a bit later into the late summer and fall 2016.
 
Of course… we will continue to monitor the El Nino to La Nina transition here in the First Alert Weather Center.
 
Nerd moment over… for now. Carry on. #FirstAlertWX
 
( LIM SST Anomalies Forecast data provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Science Division and CIRES CU, Boulder, Colorado, from their website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ )

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