Coldest air of winter, so far, headed our way

We are expecting the coldest air of the 2014-2015 winter season, so far, on Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

On Wednesday, a dry cold front will pass Jacksonville and will usher in dry, cold air behind the boundary as high pressure moves into the area.

High pressure bringing in NE winds on Wednesday night /Thursday.
High pressure bringing in NE winds on Wednesday night /Thursday.

Temperatures will begin to cool off Wednesday night as the wind picks up as well.

GFS parallel model's thoughts on temperature on Wednesday night.
GFS parallel model’s thoughts on temperature on Wednesday night.

It will not take long for frigid temperatures to fill into SE Georgia and NE Florida Wednesday night into early Thursday. We expect the mid to upper 20s with the air temperature. Some spots in SE Georgia will see only the lower 20s.

GFS parallel model's thoughts on low air temperatures on Thursday morning.
GFS parallel model’s thoughts on low air temperatures on Thursday morning.

The big story will be the “wind chill.” That is the “feels like” temperature on your skin.

GFS parallel model's thoughts on wind speed and direction on Thursday morning.
GFS parallel model’s thoughts on wind speed and direction on Thursday morning.

We will see wind chill values in the single digits in some isolated locations in Georgia…. and teens to 20s across NE Florida.

GFS parallel model's thoughts on wind chill on Thursday morning.
GFS parallel model’s thoughts on wind chill on Thursday morning.

Here is another forecast model’s solution for wind chill values.

First Alert Wind Chill Forecast for Thursday morning.
First Alert Wind Chill Forecast for Thursday morning.

It is going to be coooooold for these parts.

However, we have seen wind chill values lower than what we are forecasting for Jacksonville.

According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, Jacksonville has recorded a wind chill of -9ºF before on 1/21/1985. The actual air temperature at that time was 7ºF. That is is lowest on record for a period 1948-2015.

The last time we saw a “low” wind chill in Jacksonville… was actually last year… We “felt” a wind chill of 11ºF on 1/7/2014 with an air temperature of 24ºF.

If you were wondering how we determine the “feels like temperature”…. here is how.

National Weather Service Wind Chill Chart.
National Weather Service Wind Chill Chart.

The National Weather Service has already issued Hard Freeze Watches and Freeze Watches for our area as air temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s in many locations Thursday morning.

A hard freeze watch and freeze watch has been issued area wide for NE Florida and SE Georgia. Temps in the mid to upper 20s.
A hard freeze watch and freeze watch has been issued area wide for NE Florida and SE Georgia. Temps in the mid to upper 20s.

We will only make it to the lower 40s Thursday afternoon for much of the area. We could even see a coastal shower or two thanks to the onshore wind… and maybe a sleet pellet or two mixed in with the cold rain.

GFS parallel model's thoughts on afternoon temps on Thursday.
GFS parallel model’s thoughts on afternoon temps on Thursday.

With wind chills still in the 30s.

GFS parallel model's thoughts on wind chill on Thursday afternoon.
GFS parallel model’s thoughts on wind chill on Thursday afternoon.

We will just be glad that we aren’t in the upper-midwest!!

GFS parallel model's thoughts on air temperature on Thursday morning.
GFS parallel model’s thoughts on air temperature on Thursday morning.

Annnnnd then the wind chill below….

GFS parallel model's thoughts on wind chill on Thursday morning.
GFS parallel model’s thoughts on wind chill on Thursday morning.

Thus… Thursday will be a “First Alert Weather Day” for the bitter cold during the morning.

"First Alert Weather Day"
“First Alert Weather Day”

The good news…we will be back into the 60s by the weekend.

Get the full First Alert Forecast here.

Tag us in your “cold weather” photos by using #FirstAlertWX.

 

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